Who Won the Iraq War?

"The visit aims to develop bilateral relations, as Iran and Iraq are two friendly countries and neighbours, who must have very close relations,"  The Iraqi armed forces chief of staff, General Babak Zebari, made the remarks during a meeting with General Mohammad Pakpour, the commander of the elite Revolutionary Guards' ground forces in Tehran earlier this week. -AFP

**This article was originally published at Good Bye and Good Luck, a newsletter at the Dept. of Government at the University of Texas. Click here to find original link.

By Ali Rawaf

Last month, President Obama announced the end of the Iraq war, saying the last few thousand troops would withdraw by Dec. 2. While polls show a majority of Americans support the president’s decision, Iraqis have become significantly concerned over increased meddling from Iran. The State Department has warned Iran against interfering in Iraqi internal affairs after the troops leave and also told the Iraqis that Iran will not be a problem in the future. The truth is that U.S. officials underestimate Iranian influence and control in Iraq and the region.

Iraq’s Prime Minister, Nuri Al-Maliki, who didn’t win the last elections, was able to form a government only because Iran, a Shiite state, pressured the Shiite groups in the country to rally around him and give him the vote of confidence. Al-Maliki, a divisive figure even amongst the Shiites, has been returning the favor to Iran ever since. He has sent the Iraqi army to crack down on Mujahidee Khalk, an Iranian opposition group that has been based in Iraq for a couple of decades. Despite calls from international human rights groups to halt the attacks on the group’s camp, Al-Maliki still periodically sends Iraqi troops to intimidate them. He has vowed to remove the group from the country at the end of the year.

Iranian influence goes well beyond Iraq. In Syria, Iran has been transferring weapons to the Assad regime and abetting Assad’s crackdown on protestors opposing the regime. Last month, California-based BlueCoat said that internet surveillance devices which were sold to the Iraqi government were later found to be used by the Syrian regime to crack down on protestors. How did that happen? The Iranian regime bought those devices for Syria under the name of the Iraqi Communications Ministry.

Al-Maliki is also returning a favor to Iran by keeping quiet about the developments in Syria. As the Syrian regime employed the army to crack down on its people, Al-Maliki hosted a group of Syrian officials and entrepreneurs to strengthen economic ties with the Syrian regime. And recently, Al-Maliki’s foreign minister said Baghdad is committed to preventing any action against Iran.

In the Palestinian territories, Iran funds Hamas, the militant group blocking Palestinian-Israeli peace, and Hezbolla, the anti-western, militant Shiite group in Lebanon. In Yemen, Iran funds extremist, militant Shiite groups.

If Iran is this influential without nuclear weapons, I can only imagine what happens when Tehran acquires such weapons.

If the U.S. follows through with a complete troop withdrawal, Iran would be the sole winner of the Iraq war. The war would have only cleared the way for Iran to exert more influence in the region. After the president’s announcement of a U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq, an Iranian delegation visited Iraq and signed economic and political agreements with the Iraqi government, whereas there have been mere talks about such agreements between the United States and Iraq.

Iraq’s strategic location in the Middle East would have served as a good check on the encroaching Iranian regime. Now, Iraq  can’t even protect its airspace and its borders. While a prosperous and democratic Iraq would set a good example for the band of countries where people are demanding democracy, a failed one would serve as poster child for how democracy can fail in the Middle East. There is still a chance for negotiations to resume and possibly leave a couple of thousand troops in Iraq. If these negotiations fail, Iraq will be in the hands of Iran and the lost lives of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and thousands of American soldiers would have been in vain.

IraN/Q

I used to lay back and have a mischievous smile whenever Iran was mentioned in front of me and say, "Oh, we are not like them" but "a slap on the face can turn your head around", as figuratively says an Iraqi verb. It has been inspiring and surprising and to see the Iranian people face the bullets and their government and protest the elections results. We haven't even done that in Iraq, a recently established democracy.

What the Iranians have done has not been done in the Middle East often. An oppressed society controlled through poverty and force raises against the "Supreme Leader" of the land, the "Guard Council," and Ahmedinajad, the head of one of the most oppressive governments in our days. It is impressive even though it wasn't successful as it was seen that the "Supreme Leader," Ayatolla Khamene'i, the highest ranked Islamic Clerk in Iran responded to the angry crowds by telling them that it was fair elections and the results are final.

The Iranians have broken out of the religion shell by opposing the Ayatolla, not an event that I can imagine happening in Iraq soon, Shiites protesting the streets against Ayatolla Sistani. It is neither soon to happen nor to hope for it.

As I was watching, I was very inspired by how determined and driven the Iranians were, but I was wondering if it was focused towards the right cause. Musawi or Musavi, as spelled on media sources, would have not really made much of a difference in the country, especially after the deterioration caused by Ahmedinajad's administration. It would have been the same horse but with a different rider.

The corrupt failing Iranians government is partially caused and started by Musawi. He put the country through a draining war with Iraq; however, he is given the credit for stewardship of the Iranian economy, an area where Ahmedinajad had failed but from a religious and extremism evaluation pint of view, Musawi would have not been better than Ahmedinajad which is a key feature needed in the country, which the Iranian society desperately needs.

As I look at Iraq, I wish that we are at this point, to be courageous enough to actually protest like Iranians did. I think once we break the bondage that the religious leaders have kept us in for a long time, we will be able to make a difference in our nations.

I believe the outcome of this mini-revolution is that it has sparked in our minds, the minds of the youth of the Middle East that we all need to voice out our opinions and to not bow down for oppression. This, I believe has lit the torch to light the way for the Middle Eastern youth to wake up and make a difference in the society.