With Less Involvement in Iraq, US Interests and Iraq’s Future in Jeopardy

By Ali Rawaf

Writing about Iraqi politics has become more frustrating than starting a fire by rubbing two sticks. There are hardly any positive political developments and our politicians are stuck in debating issues that bear no substance or benefit to the people.

To remind you, as soon as the last US soldier stepped outside the Iraqi borders, things have been going downhill.  Today, Maliki's Iraq almost seems as far from democracy as it was under Saddam Hussein. The PM is on a journey to court as much power into his hands as possible. The opposition forces continue to lose ground. And the Iraqi people continue to suffer from poor quality of life.

Soon after the US left, Maliki moved to prosecute his VP for alleged terrorist activities, a move that reignited sectarian tensions and as he is being tried in absentia, Iraqis are reminded of the sectarian violence that they thought was winding down.

Last week, the Minister of Communication resigned after growing interference from the Prime Minister in moving ministry officials around with no regards to the minister, who is a member of the same political entity of the VP. Anonymous sources say that three top leaders from the same political party have given their support to Maliki, after his perpetual threats of ousting them from their positions.

Maliki is also in a major political battle with the Kurds. As Iraq’s oil revenue grows so does the fight between Baghdad and the Kurdish federal region over oil contracts that are being granted to foreign companies by the regional government. Maliki’s office says that the central government is the only one that is authorized to grant such contracts. As a result, foreign companies are growing more hesitant to do business with Iraq and the Kurds renewed their calls for secession.

The growing frustrations with Maliki’s politics lead to a meeting between the major political parties in parliament. They agreed to question Maliki within the constitutional power the parliament. A day before Maliki was going to be summoned, a military unit under his command lifted the belt of concrete blocks that fortify parliament against bomb attacks, a move that was seen as a threat.

The PM also threatened the parties that if he was going to be questioned, he would divulge embarrassing secrets about those who question him. As a result, the efforts to oust him or question him withered.

Iraqi politicians claim that Maliki seems emboldened by the US lack of interest in Iraqi affairs and an expanding Iranian support. That lack of involvement from the US and the West will not only cost Iraqis, it will cost the US interests in the region.

Iraq so far has helped lessen the effects of the US sanctions against Iran by letting local banks handle Iranian trade transactions and Iraq is also helping Iran send military supplies support the Syrian regime through Iraqi airspace.

Despite calls from Iraqi parties, regional and foreign countries, and US VP Joe Biden to halt both activities, Maliki remains defiant and those activities still go on. 

Iraq Abstained as Arab League Voted on Syria Suspension

The Arab League decided to suspend Syria's membership.
Lebanon and Yemen voted against the measure. Iraq abstained from voting. 

By: Ali Rawaf

A month after Iraq’s government had cracked down on former members of the Iraq Baath regime, it abstained from voting to suspend Syria’s Baathist regime from membership in the Arab League.  

Only two countries voted against the suspension: Yemen and Lebanon. It is understandable why those two would vote as such. The Yemeni is also facing public demonstrations and protests, demanding democracy. Lebanon’s government, which used to be overwhelmed by Syrian influence, is now dominated by Hezbolla, a militant and political group funded by Iran.

Iraq, on the other hand, should have been leading the effort to suspend Syria’s membership. After all, it is the first country in the region that has experimented with democratization. The Iraqi government, which consists predominantly of Shiites and Kurdish politicians, shouldn’t forget how Saddam Hussein massacred the Shiites and the Kurds when they revolted against the government in 1991.

This is yet another alarming move by the Iraqi government. Such actions invoke only concerns amongst Iraqis. Last month, the government launched a campaign of arrests against former Baathists. More than 600 former Baathists were arrested, some of which were government employees and college professors. Why the crack down on harmless civilians but  The Iraqi Prime Minister said the Baath Party, which is banned by the constitution, was conspiring to bring down Iraq’s new democracy, a claim which Iraqis have heard too many times.

If anything, Iraq's decision seems like another favor to Iran, which has pressed the Iraqi government to support the Syrian regime. A few months ago, Prime Minister Al-Maliki hosted a group of Syrian officials and entrepreneurs  to strengthen ties with the next-door neighbor, while the rest of the world was calling on the Syrian president to step down.

Iraq’s abstention to vote to suspend the membership of Syria’s violent and authoritarian regime offers one more clue as to where Iraqi might be headed in the future.

  

In Facing Protests, Iraq's Democracy Looks More Authoritarian

By: Ali Rawaf

Iraqi Forces surrounding Tahrir Square, where Iraqis protested poor services and high unemployment

Iraq, a democracy where elections were almost free and fair, didn’t treat its protestors any better than the rest of the authoritarian regimes in the region. The government took quick and violent actions to prevent Iraq’s protests from gaining momentum.

Since the inception of the protests, Maliki branded the activists who organized the protests as Baathists and member of al-Qaeda who were looking for opportunities to bring down the Iraqi government, despite repeated declarations that the protests were aimed at improving basic services and unemployment, not at removing the current government. This move, previously employed against political opponents, discouraged many people from voicing their discontent in the protests.  Another fear-mongering announcement from Maliki’s office was humorous. In it, Maliki predicted that terrorists dressed in police uniforms will beat the protestors so people should be cautious.

On the eve of the protest, a curfew was imposed by the Prime Minister’s office (The Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces) until further notice. On the day of the protests, many of Iraq’s Sunni provinces had imposed curfews. Despite the curfew, people marched down the streets and expressed their anger with the current status of services and employment.

Freedom of the press, a constitutional right, was violated as well. Iraqi and foreign TV networks weren’t allowed to cover the protests live, therefore, people wouldn’t be encouraged to come join the protests after watching them on TV.

Journalists who were on the grounds of the protests were beaten, humiliated, and imprisoned by the Iraqi Army and police forces. Journalists, who were freed later, said they had seen leaders of civil society groups, actors, activists, and local civilians imprisoned and beaten by the Iraqi forces.

The protestors themselves were hosed with water cannons, beaten, and imprisoned.

The central government and Parliament found a way of diverting the blame onto local governments instead of taking responsibility for the shortcomings in their performance for the past years. Governors of two provinces had resigned and a few other governors are expected to do the same soon.  

To appease the protestors, Maliki and the parliament, cut their salaries by 20%, though originally intended to cut 50%. They also promised to give more food aid for the poor, place a halt on a newly approved import tax, and to improve basic services within a 100 days. Critics are skeptical  that such promises will be fulfilled.

If I could draw one main theme of the protests, it would be regret. Iraqis risked their lives on March 7^th 2010 to vote for a new government. A year later, that government hasn’t been formed completely, with key ministries such as the Interior and Defense still vacant. The very little faith Iraqis had that the past election cycle was going to bring about change, has been lost. The picture shows an Iraqi biting his index finger, a gesture of regret in Iraqi culture. His finger is still painted purple with voting ink.

Is Iraq Falling Back Into Authoritarianism?

By: Ali Rawaf
  
     One sad fact about new democracies is that they might turn back into authoritarian regimes that ruled the country before those democracies emerged. Iraq's democracy might be one of those. Iraq is on the brink of falling back into an authoritarian regime, under Maliki's Dawa party.

We have witnessed Maliki's strong grip on his seat as Prime Minister. Though his term has constitutionally expired, Maliki and his cabinet still have full control of all three powers; executive, legislative, and judicial. The cabinet has signed contracts, appointed ambassadors, passed laws, all while the Parliament is not really in session. Maliki's powers are all unchecked. Maliki seems to have also manipulated Iraq's supreme court to rule in his favor several times. Furthermore, Maliki has been trying every way possible to somehow "legitimize" his bloc, which came in second in the elections, to form the next government. Maliki's bloc, State Of Law has formed an alliance with the National Alliance, the radical Shiite bloc. The alliance, was named the National Alliance hours before the first session of Parliament so al-Iraqyiah wouldn't enter the first session as the biggest bloc. Maliki's alliance with the  radical Shiite bloc had a bumpy start and remains in gridlock over which candidate they want for the Prime Minister post. The National Alliance remains under no leadership.

Recently, Iraqis marched down the streets protesting the lack of basic services such as drinking water and electricity. The protests, after taking place in five provinces, resulted in the resignation of the Minister of Electricity. The protests were seen by Maliki's State of Law as a movement to reduce Malki's popularity. Iraqi news networks reported today that Maliki  ordered to tighten security measures in Basra, the province where the protests started. The security forces have more presence in the province and their purpose is to "discourage" anymore protests. Deterring the protests doesn't remind me of anything but of Iraq's old days under Saddam Hussein.

Today, al-Arabiya news channel was raided be security forces from the Ministry of Interior. The channel staff was ordered to evacuate their office because of "threats that their office will be attacked." The staff was instructed to leave behind all their equipment and belongings in the office before the Ministry of Interior shut down their office. al-Arabiya has been known for its support of Ayad Allawi, the head of the winning Iraqyiah bloc and Maliki's rival for the Prime Minister post. al-Arabyia had interviewed Allawi a few days ago.

With one sign after the other, Iraqis are beginning to lose hope in Iraq's democracy. Maliki and his cronies have managed to take over all aspects of governance in Iraq. Their insistence on remaining in power has brought chaos back to the country and put the political process at stalemate. Almost four months after the elections, Malki still shows no signs of stepping down from his expired post and to transfer power peacefully. The change for which Iraqis voted is farther than it seemed on the night of the elections.

Violence Rises, again!

"Just when we thought it was over!", a sentence uttered by all Iraqis nowadays, questioning the comeback of violence into the streets. After the situation was the worst in 2006, the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 indicated the opposite.

The streets started getting more and more secure; people started getting back to their homes that they had to desert at some point; and everyone thought that it was the beginning of stability in Iraq.

Nevertheless, it is not. By the end of March this year, bombs filled the streets again, killing random people and targeting innocent lives in large numbers. We all stood waiting for the next step while wondering whether it is going to get worse or better.

"Worse" was the Answer to our inquiries! Since the relapse of bombings in Iraq in March, the situation just kept getting worse. Now, many people are dying , again , while shopping, going to school or work. The less-than- a-year period of revival has gone. And it has certainly become official as the Iraqi Prime Minister stated a week ago that we should expect the acts of violence to rise in the following months.

Yes, it sounds a bit ironic to hear the prime minister saying this, but it was not a surprise to hear that. It's not like we, Iraqis, were awaiting his statement to realize what's happening.
However, some people need some answers. They definitely need to know why on earth this started happening again!

Reviewing the changes in the government body over the past few months, nothing really huge happened. The "big guys" are still in power. So, there shouldn't be anything changing that much.
Oh, hold on! Didn't the Coalition Forces decide to leave the country by June 2011? Doesn't that mean less number of solders on the streets securing the cities? Doesn't that mean the Terrorists would resume their actions? Yes, Yes, and Yes! It's like handing your enemy your attack plan.

That's why it will never end unless the these really sensitive decisions become less obvious to the public, especially in a country not so strong. We're still healing our wounds from the non-ending war. We need to be following a specific secure discipline to re-establish our lives in there and then get to reveal the fate-determining plans to the world, not caring about the terror.
But for now, please be more discreet! We know you are working hard " not for sure, though", but your work won't pay off with this much transparency.

Fadi Al-Asadi