With Less Involvement in Iraq, US Interests and Iraq’s Future in Jeopardy

By Ali Rawaf

Writing about Iraqi politics has become more frustrating than starting a fire by rubbing two sticks. There are hardly any positive political developments and our politicians are stuck in debating issues that bear no substance or benefit to the people.

To remind you, as soon as the last US soldier stepped outside the Iraqi borders, things have been going downhill.  Today, Maliki's Iraq almost seems as far from democracy as it was under Saddam Hussein. The PM is on a journey to court as much power into his hands as possible. The opposition forces continue to lose ground. And the Iraqi people continue to suffer from poor quality of life.

Soon after the US left, Maliki moved to prosecute his VP for alleged terrorist activities, a move that reignited sectarian tensions and as he is being tried in absentia, Iraqis are reminded of the sectarian violence that they thought was winding down.

Last week, the Minister of Communication resigned after growing interference from the Prime Minister in moving ministry officials around with no regards to the minister, who is a member of the same political entity of the VP. Anonymous sources say that three top leaders from the same political party have given their support to Maliki, after his perpetual threats of ousting them from their positions.

Maliki is also in a major political battle with the Kurds. As Iraq’s oil revenue grows so does the fight between Baghdad and the Kurdish federal region over oil contracts that are being granted to foreign companies by the regional government. Maliki’s office says that the central government is the only one that is authorized to grant such contracts. As a result, foreign companies are growing more hesitant to do business with Iraq and the Kurds renewed their calls for secession.

The growing frustrations with Maliki’s politics lead to a meeting between the major political parties in parliament. They agreed to question Maliki within the constitutional power the parliament. A day before Maliki was going to be summoned, a military unit under his command lifted the belt of concrete blocks that fortify parliament against bomb attacks, a move that was seen as a threat.

The PM also threatened the parties that if he was going to be questioned, he would divulge embarrassing secrets about those who question him. As a result, the efforts to oust him or question him withered.

Iraqi politicians claim that Maliki seems emboldened by the US lack of interest in Iraqi affairs and an expanding Iranian support. That lack of involvement from the US and the West will not only cost Iraqis, it will cost the US interests in the region.

Iraq so far has helped lessen the effects of the US sanctions against Iran by letting local banks handle Iranian trade transactions and Iraq is also helping Iran send military supplies support the Syrian regime through Iraqi airspace.

Despite calls from Iraqi parties, regional and foreign countries, and US VP Joe Biden to halt both activities, Maliki remains defiant and those activities still go on. 

Arrest Warrant Issued for Iraqi Electoral Commission Head

By Ali Rawaf

An Iraqi court issued a warrant for the arrest of the president of the Iraqi High Electoral Commission, Faraj Al-Haidary for alleged bonuses that were awarded to some of the Commission personnel. The warrant states that he will be in custody for a 3 day-investigation.

Ever since the March 2010 election results were announced, declaring Maliki’s rival political bloc the winner, the PM and his partly started a campaign against the Electoral Commission, claiming that his president and staff collaborated with winning bloc.

Soon after securing a second term, Maliki sought an order from the High Court to enlist the Electoral Commission and other independent bodies under the authority of the PM’s office. The move infuriated several political parties and later, even though the Court ruled in the Maliki’s favor, it later clarified that no entity has authority over the independent bodies such as the Central Bank and the Electoral Commission.  The Court clarification came after there was an outrage by Parliament and the heads of political parties over what was clearly a violation of a constitutional article.

Two months later, the PM’s party in Parliament, State of Law called for the investigation of the president of the Electoral Commission and his Deputy over fraud allegations. The rest of the parliament saw how politicized the questioning was by the State of Law members and called to end the investigation. A couple of months later, the State of Law bloc returned and called for the disbanding of the current Electoral Commission and replace it with new staff.

This move along with a series of actions taken by the PM and his party are alarming. After the US withdrawal from Iraq, the PM got the High Court to issue an arrest warrant against the Sunni Vice President, Tareq Al-Hashimi and asked parliament to vote his Sunni Deputy, Salih Al-Mutlaq out of his post. While the effort to oust the latter failed, the former is currently called a fugitive VP in the news and his office staff and body guards are under arrest. Recently, the VP said three of his body guards died in prison because of torture. The moves have been regarded as reasons for the new escalation in sectarian tensions and violence in Iraq.

 I regard them as a serious threat to our fragile and diminishing democracy. 

Is Iraq Falling Back Into Authoritarianism?

By: Ali Rawaf
  
     One sad fact about new democracies is that they might turn back into authoritarian regimes that ruled the country before those democracies emerged. Iraq's democracy might be one of those. Iraq is on the brink of falling back into an authoritarian regime, under Maliki's Dawa party.

We have witnessed Maliki's strong grip on his seat as Prime Minister. Though his term has constitutionally expired, Maliki and his cabinet still have full control of all three powers; executive, legislative, and judicial. The cabinet has signed contracts, appointed ambassadors, passed laws, all while the Parliament is not really in session. Maliki's powers are all unchecked. Maliki seems to have also manipulated Iraq's supreme court to rule in his favor several times. Furthermore, Maliki has been trying every way possible to somehow "legitimize" his bloc, which came in second in the elections, to form the next government. Maliki's bloc, State Of Law has formed an alliance with the National Alliance, the radical Shiite bloc. The alliance, was named the National Alliance hours before the first session of Parliament so al-Iraqyiah wouldn't enter the first session as the biggest bloc. Maliki's alliance with the  radical Shiite bloc had a bumpy start and remains in gridlock over which candidate they want for the Prime Minister post. The National Alliance remains under no leadership.

Recently, Iraqis marched down the streets protesting the lack of basic services such as drinking water and electricity. The protests, after taking place in five provinces, resulted in the resignation of the Minister of Electricity. The protests were seen by Maliki's State of Law as a movement to reduce Malki's popularity. Iraqi news networks reported today that Maliki  ordered to tighten security measures in Basra, the province where the protests started. The security forces have more presence in the province and their purpose is to "discourage" anymore protests. Deterring the protests doesn't remind me of anything but of Iraq's old days under Saddam Hussein.

Today, al-Arabiya news channel was raided be security forces from the Ministry of Interior. The channel staff was ordered to evacuate their office because of "threats that their office will be attacked." The staff was instructed to leave behind all their equipment and belongings in the office before the Ministry of Interior shut down their office. al-Arabiya has been known for its support of Ayad Allawi, the head of the winning Iraqyiah bloc and Maliki's rival for the Prime Minister post. al-Arabyia had interviewed Allawi a few days ago.

With one sign after the other, Iraqis are beginning to lose hope in Iraq's democracy. Maliki and his cronies have managed to take over all aspects of governance in Iraq. Their insistence on remaining in power has brought chaos back to the country and put the political process at stalemate. Almost four months after the elections, Malki still shows no signs of stepping down from his expired post and to transfer power peacefully. The change for which Iraqis voted is farther than it seemed on the night of the elections.

The Contradictions of Maliki's Politics

By: Ali Rawaf

Over the past three months, Maliki has proved that rules, norms, laws, and the constitution can be boldly violated without any regards to the public sentiments. It also proved the immaturity of Iraq's democracy and the politicians who are still new to the democratic game.

First, Maliki openly supported the rise of the De-baathification committee in the Parliament, a toll that was used to "legally" disqulaify candidates before the elections and after the results came out. The commission, under its new name, Commission for Justice and Accountability, made decisions to disqualify, sue, and publicly question the integrity of candidates, even though its Parliament was not in session. Recently, the commission said it would stop disqualifying newly-elected Parliamentarians, as if they have done us a favor.

Then, Maliki ran on a secular campaign, promising Iraqis that the past of ethnic tensions was to be left behind. He also promised that the politics of confessionalism in Iraq is now an old practice. Once he found out that the results weren't in his favor, he sought Iraqnian support and quickly tried to make a coalition with the radical Shiite bloc, which came third in the elections after Maliki's 89 nine seats and Allawi's 91 seats. The Shiite "coalition" hasn't agreed on a leader of the coalition neither have they settled on a candidate for the prime minister's post, the two important features of a political coalition seem missing. But parties left and right don't like any of the other blocs' candidates(Top vote-getters) for the Prime Minister post, which is not respecting the new election law that calls for and "Open List," a term that refers to placing each candidate's name on the ballot so the voter will choose directly on who wants for the PM post.

Malki also criticized Allawi's visits to regional countries, claiming that the visits represent an invitation to those countries to interfere in Iraqi politics. In the past couple of days, Maliki sent delegations to Arab countries to garner their support for his second term, openly.

The State of Law, Nouri al-Malki's bloc rhetorically attacked Allawi when he said that a non-inclusive government will drag Iraq back into sectarian tensions and violence. Maliki, when he felt that the PM post was slipping from his hand, he claimed that Iraq will once again go back to sectarian violence if he is not to get a second term.

The State of Law's coalition with the radical Iraqi National Alliance, named "National AlLiance," declared the alliance within 48 hours of the date Parliament was set to convene and after Ammar al_Hakim, the leader of the Iraqi National Alliance met with Sistani, the Shiite Grand Ayatolla. This shows that religious authority can override the democratic process and norms and can still manipulate politics or influence it one way or another.

Maliki's government also is acting as it is the official government, not an interim one. The PM is writing laws, signing deals and contracts, and hiring ambassadors, all of which are non-constitutional.

In short, Iraq's democracy s fragile and its rules can still be bent by politicians. Once our politicians leave behind the past and the spirit of revenge and politics of confessionalism, elements of liberal democracy might be more tangible but if we keep the gridlock and bold violation of electoral rules, laws,the constitution, and proportionally distribute government positions, we will stay unconsolidated democracy, a picture that much looks like Lebanon, if not worse.