With Less Involvement in Iraq, US Interests and Iraq’s Future in Jeopardy

By Ali Rawaf

Writing about Iraqi politics has become more frustrating than starting a fire by rubbing two sticks. There are hardly any positive political developments and our politicians are stuck in debating issues that bear no substance or benefit to the people.

To remind you, as soon as the last US soldier stepped outside the Iraqi borders, things have been going downhill.  Today, Maliki's Iraq almost seems as far from democracy as it was under Saddam Hussein. The PM is on a journey to court as much power into his hands as possible. The opposition forces continue to lose ground. And the Iraqi people continue to suffer from poor quality of life.

Soon after the US left, Maliki moved to prosecute his VP for alleged terrorist activities, a move that reignited sectarian tensions and as he is being tried in absentia, Iraqis are reminded of the sectarian violence that they thought was winding down.

Last week, the Minister of Communication resigned after growing interference from the Prime Minister in moving ministry officials around with no regards to the minister, who is a member of the same political entity of the VP. Anonymous sources say that three top leaders from the same political party have given their support to Maliki, after his perpetual threats of ousting them from their positions.

Maliki is also in a major political battle with the Kurds. As Iraq’s oil revenue grows so does the fight between Baghdad and the Kurdish federal region over oil contracts that are being granted to foreign companies by the regional government. Maliki’s office says that the central government is the only one that is authorized to grant such contracts. As a result, foreign companies are growing more hesitant to do business with Iraq and the Kurds renewed their calls for secession.

The growing frustrations with Maliki’s politics lead to a meeting between the major political parties in parliament. They agreed to question Maliki within the constitutional power the parliament. A day before Maliki was going to be summoned, a military unit under his command lifted the belt of concrete blocks that fortify parliament against bomb attacks, a move that was seen as a threat.

The PM also threatened the parties that if he was going to be questioned, he would divulge embarrassing secrets about those who question him. As a result, the efforts to oust him or question him withered.

Iraqi politicians claim that Maliki seems emboldened by the US lack of interest in Iraqi affairs and an expanding Iranian support. That lack of involvement from the US and the West will not only cost Iraqis, it will cost the US interests in the region.

Iraq so far has helped lessen the effects of the US sanctions against Iran by letting local banks handle Iranian trade transactions and Iraq is also helping Iran send military supplies support the Syrian regime through Iraqi airspace.

Despite calls from Iraqi parties, regional and foreign countries, and US VP Joe Biden to halt both activities, Maliki remains defiant and those activities still go on. 

Iraq Government Formation Sets a Bad Precedence for a Democracy

By: Ali Rawaf

It would have been great if I could start this blog by congratulating my people about the formation of the government. But unfortunately, what they portray to be the conclusion of a record_breaking and tumultuous eight months of negotiations is nothing but a magnified picture of the disarray of Iraqi politics that has been ongoing and will continue to take place in this government.


Confessionalism
Iraqi politicians pay little attention to the fact that what early governments do in new democracies, sets precedence for future governments. The power-sharing deal on which the parties agree will only institutionalize the sectarianism and the division of the current Iraqi society. The presidency to the Kurdish Talabani, PM post for Maliki, a Shiite, and the parliament Speaker position was given to Nujeifi, a prominent Sunni leader in al-Iraqyia. The perceived amount of power vested in each position is supposed to reflect the percentage of population each sect posses. Sounds silly but sadly, it's true. This kind of power-sharing pays little attention to anything about any candidate other than his sect. So forget having professionals in government as long as they meet the sect requirement. Progressively, politicians elevated the rhetoric about sectarianism in respect to the positions in the new government. Maliki was the first when he told reporters that despite the wishes of having an nonsectarian political race, sectarianism will continue to dominate the process. Kurdish MP's said that the Presidency is a Kurdish right despite the elections results. This is similar to what happened in 2005 and 2006 and exactly how Maliki won his first term. The Parliament also agreed to establish A National Strategic Council which is presumed to be given to Allawi, the head of the Iraqyiah List. The latter position is supposed to check on the PM's powers, it will also have executive powers over security, economy, and foreign policy. Allawi is a secular Shiite.



Inefficiency
While you might think that a power-sharing deal such as the one Iraqis figured out would bring about what Allawi calls "Devolution of power," it can tremendously stall the political process. Each of  these positions don't have clearly defined powers but each of them is supposed to have some sort of a check on each other. If there are four, heads to a government, how long will it take them to make a consensus on a certain issue? I predict very long, knowing that it took them 8 months to come up with this fragile deal.

Allawi's new council, under which the PM will serve as a member, will be very inefficient. Any decision made by the council has to win a vote of an absolute plurality and 80% of the vote in Parliament. Allawi is frustrated. I would too, how can you get 80% of a sectarian parliament to agree on a piece of legislation when they couldn't agree on making a simple majority to form a government for 8 months?

Arguably, it is good to have a long period of deliberation when introducing a legislation. But in a country that is desperately in need of rapid government actions to bring about basic services such as water, electricity, this kind of government dynamics can be a little early.

Above the Law
Before the elections, key members of al-Iraqiyah List were prohibited from running in the election by a Parliamentary commission responsible for running de-Baathification, a program set to oust former members of Saddam Hussein's party and his regime. The program goes after all kinds of public servants and even college professors. Part of the pact the party leaders signed to reach the agreement was the exclusion of key politicians in al-Iraqyia from the de-Baathification program and awarding them with positions in the government, after the elections. To be fair, some of these members were de-Baathified with no evidence. This tells other public servants, who were unjustly ousted from office due to the de-Baathification program, that politicians are simply above the law. This is another example of a bad precedence for a new democracy.

The Will of the Voters
When I voted, I voted for change. Many Iraqis did the same. Iraqis were fed up with the sectarian orientation of the former government. The US President said "the government of Iraq will be inclusive and representative." I beg to differ. Having a Shiite, a Kurd, and a Sunni hold key positions in the government doesn't make it representative of the will of the people. What we have in Iraq today is similar to what we had in the past four years, a bad government and a dwindling hope in the future of democracy in Iraq.

Is Iraq Falling Back Into Authoritarianism?

By: Ali Rawaf
  
     One sad fact about new democracies is that they might turn back into authoritarian regimes that ruled the country before those democracies emerged. Iraq's democracy might be one of those. Iraq is on the brink of falling back into an authoritarian regime, under Maliki's Dawa party.

We have witnessed Maliki's strong grip on his seat as Prime Minister. Though his term has constitutionally expired, Maliki and his cabinet still have full control of all three powers; executive, legislative, and judicial. The cabinet has signed contracts, appointed ambassadors, passed laws, all while the Parliament is not really in session. Maliki's powers are all unchecked. Maliki seems to have also manipulated Iraq's supreme court to rule in his favor several times. Furthermore, Maliki has been trying every way possible to somehow "legitimize" his bloc, which came in second in the elections, to form the next government. Maliki's bloc, State Of Law has formed an alliance with the National Alliance, the radical Shiite bloc. The alliance, was named the National Alliance hours before the first session of Parliament so al-Iraqyiah wouldn't enter the first session as the biggest bloc. Maliki's alliance with the  radical Shiite bloc had a bumpy start and remains in gridlock over which candidate they want for the Prime Minister post. The National Alliance remains under no leadership.

Recently, Iraqis marched down the streets protesting the lack of basic services such as drinking water and electricity. The protests, after taking place in five provinces, resulted in the resignation of the Minister of Electricity. The protests were seen by Maliki's State of Law as a movement to reduce Malki's popularity. Iraqi news networks reported today that Maliki  ordered to tighten security measures in Basra, the province where the protests started. The security forces have more presence in the province and their purpose is to "discourage" anymore protests. Deterring the protests doesn't remind me of anything but of Iraq's old days under Saddam Hussein.

Today, al-Arabiya news channel was raided be security forces from the Ministry of Interior. The channel staff was ordered to evacuate their office because of "threats that their office will be attacked." The staff was instructed to leave behind all their equipment and belongings in the office before the Ministry of Interior shut down their office. al-Arabiya has been known for its support of Ayad Allawi, the head of the winning Iraqyiah bloc and Maliki's rival for the Prime Minister post. al-Arabyia had interviewed Allawi a few days ago.

With one sign after the other, Iraqis are beginning to lose hope in Iraq's democracy. Maliki and his cronies have managed to take over all aspects of governance in Iraq. Their insistence on remaining in power has brought chaos back to the country and put the political process at stalemate. Almost four months after the elections, Malki still shows no signs of stepping down from his expired post and to transfer power peacefully. The change for which Iraqis voted is farther than it seemed on the night of the elections.

The Contradictions of Maliki's Politics

By: Ali Rawaf

Over the past three months, Maliki has proved that rules, norms, laws, and the constitution can be boldly violated without any regards to the public sentiments. It also proved the immaturity of Iraq's democracy and the politicians who are still new to the democratic game.

First, Maliki openly supported the rise of the De-baathification committee in the Parliament, a toll that was used to "legally" disqulaify candidates before the elections and after the results came out. The commission, under its new name, Commission for Justice and Accountability, made decisions to disqualify, sue, and publicly question the integrity of candidates, even though its Parliament was not in session. Recently, the commission said it would stop disqualifying newly-elected Parliamentarians, as if they have done us a favor.

Then, Maliki ran on a secular campaign, promising Iraqis that the past of ethnic tensions was to be left behind. He also promised that the politics of confessionalism in Iraq is now an old practice. Once he found out that the results weren't in his favor, he sought Iraqnian support and quickly tried to make a coalition with the radical Shiite bloc, which came third in the elections after Maliki's 89 nine seats and Allawi's 91 seats. The Shiite "coalition" hasn't agreed on a leader of the coalition neither have they settled on a candidate for the prime minister's post, the two important features of a political coalition seem missing. But parties left and right don't like any of the other blocs' candidates(Top vote-getters) for the Prime Minister post, which is not respecting the new election law that calls for and "Open List," a term that refers to placing each candidate's name on the ballot so the voter will choose directly on who wants for the PM post.

Malki also criticized Allawi's visits to regional countries, claiming that the visits represent an invitation to those countries to interfere in Iraqi politics. In the past couple of days, Maliki sent delegations to Arab countries to garner their support for his second term, openly.

The State of Law, Nouri al-Malki's bloc rhetorically attacked Allawi when he said that a non-inclusive government will drag Iraq back into sectarian tensions and violence. Maliki, when he felt that the PM post was slipping from his hand, he claimed that Iraq will once again go back to sectarian violence if he is not to get a second term.

The State of Law's coalition with the radical Iraqi National Alliance, named "National AlLiance," declared the alliance within 48 hours of the date Parliament was set to convene and after Ammar al_Hakim, the leader of the Iraqi National Alliance met with Sistani, the Shiite Grand Ayatolla. This shows that religious authority can override the democratic process and norms and can still manipulate politics or influence it one way or another.

Maliki's government also is acting as it is the official government, not an interim one. The PM is writing laws, signing deals and contracts, and hiring ambassadors, all of which are non-constitutional.

In short, Iraq's democracy s fragile and its rules can still be bent by politicians. Once our politicians leave behind the past and the spirit of revenge and politics of confessionalism, elements of liberal democracy might be more tangible but if we keep the gridlock and bold violation of electoral rules, laws,the constitution, and proportionally distribute government positions, we will stay unconsolidated democracy, a picture that much looks like Lebanon, if not worse.

Iraq's Democracy: Signs of Consolidation

By: Ali Rawaf
As the elections approach, I am just more and more amazed at what has become of Iraq. Don't get me wrong, we don't have a complete democracy yet but it is consolidating.

If you have been following, parties are really competeing for people's votes. Though it is an old method of campaigning, Baghdad's streets are full of posters of candidates. The Iraqi TV and other Arab channels are playing campaign advertisements over and over. What is most interesting is how the society have really utilized technology in politics. Social media networks such as Facebook or Twitter are full of Iraqi politicians that keep reminding people to go and cast out their votes like this facebook status update from the Al-Iraqiya List Chairman, Ayad Allawi's Facebok page, "We urge all Iraqis to vote, every vote is a vital step on the road to real change and a brighter future for Iraq."

In retrospect, Iraqis, when asked about for which candidate they are going to vote, they used to have a ready answer that would pertain to basis of religiosity and sectariansim. When asked Al-Jazeera correspondednt, "For which candidate are you going to vote?" The Iraqi interviewee retorted, "I don't know yet, there are many of them." Watch the video here

Reprots state that the majority of Iraqis will vote this time as a apposed to last election round, where mostly Shiites and Kurds voted. This will of the Iraqi people to further and advance this democratic political process reveals how the country ha left behind ethnic division and sectarian violence in addition to their strong apposition to the terrorist groups in the country.

I hope that if there is one thing this election can show the world, it would be how determined and desperate people we are to have a states that respects rights, freedoms, and democracy.

Iraqi Elections Bans: A Flashback from The Past

By: Ali Rawaf

It is no wonder that the recent election bans on a number of Iraqi politicians and parliamentarian are prejudice and illegitimate.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not a big fan of Salih Al Mutlaq or many of the banned politicians but I do sense the tension that has risen from the ban.

If the Iraqi election commission truly believed that those politicians should be disqualified, why haven’t been any mentioning in November or December, a month or two before the Iraqi elections were originally set to be held.

Salih Al-Mutlaq, though has truly said many things that can be labeled as Baathist, has been a member of the Iraqi parliament for the past four years with being questioned about any of his Baath promotion. Shouldn’t we hold accountable of the elected officials just as much as we do the ones running to be elected.

The majority of the candidates in the banned list are Sunni. This can be very detrimental as we shape our government for the next four years. Though there is no real census, no one wants to be underrepresented.

We cannot afford to have a big sector of the Iraqi population as part of the voting population. This banning of candidates has truly reminded Iraqis like me that government officials are still holding on to the same issues with which we struggled in the past elections: sectarianism, animosity, and insecurity.

If the commission doesn’t truly take into consideration the appeals of the banned candidates and transparently reviews them, the elections in Iraq will be nothing but a recap of the former elections round.

*Picture is used from the Time Magazine website.